TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD
AEP50(3) Statewide Travel Demand Forecasting Subcommittee

Chair: Michelle Bina, Cambridge Systematics

TRB 2023 Meeting Minutes

Annual Meeting Minutes

Statewide Travel Demand Forecasting AEP50(3)

Subcommittee of AEP50 and AEP10

Tuesday, 10:15 AM EST – 12:00 PM EST, 1/10/2023

Liberty Salon M (M4) Marriott Marquis

10:21 Welcome/Introductions

  • Presiding: Rob Bostrom, CDM Smith and Elizabeth Sall, UrbanLabs LLC
    • Subcommittee is 25 years old
    • This is Rob’s last meeting as chair
    • Introductions
  • TRB Liaison: Anusha Jaysinghe, TRB
    • New TRB director
    • TRB reevaluating how subcommittees are defined
      • Rob: subcommittees going to be required to have a product
      • Will need to get a group together to determine next steps/product, possibly similar to SW Modeling Peer Exchange
    • Preliminary TRB attendance numbers: over 10,000
  • Committee Backup: Andrew Rohne, RSG

10:20 Approve Last Year’s Minutes – see website: TRB Statewide Modeling Subcommittee (trbappcon.org)

  • Motion: Giaimo, Second: Bernardin, approved

10:25 Existing Committee Activities

  • 2022 Activities
    • trbtravelforecasting.org website
      • Elisabeth Sall maintains, s/o to Like Liu and Matt Stratton.
    • Paper reviews
      • David Ory is the committee paper review coordinator. The subcommittee does not have its own paper review process/coordination.
      • Additional paper reviewers would be appreciated! Talk to David Ory.
    • Wiki and Web site status – Andrew Rohne, RSG webmaster, Michelle Bina, Cambridge Systematics, wiki lead.
      • Website updated, presentations will be uploaded to the website.
      • Wiki?
        • There is a lot of SW modeling content up there.
        • TFResource subcommittee is changing names to tech transfer and adding an email newsletter.
    • Research subcommittee – Greg Giaimo, WSP, Vince Bernardin, Caliper, Jeremy Raw, FHWA, Rob Schiffer, FuturePlan Consulting, Rob Bostrom
      • Greg, Vince, Jeremy (who engaged Volpe Center assistance) and Rob Schiffer assisted with peer exchange and preparing and publishing findings.
      • Volunteers wanted! John Gliebe and Steve Tuttle rose hands.
  • 2023 Annual Meeting related activities
    • TRB liaison – Anusha Jaysinghe
    • Planning and Forecasting events
  • Linkages with other TRB committees – liaison confirm interest and/or report on committee activities.
    • Travel Forecasting Resource http://tfresource.org/Statewide_Models  AEP50(4)
      • Parent committee meeting at 1:30 PM Tuesday
    • TRB Innovations in Travel Analysis and Planning(AEP15) – Rob Schiffer
      • Good meeting yesterday
      • Two sessions yesterday morning; new committee (merger of planning applications and MPO committee and small/med community committee)
      • Emphasis not as strong on the conference
        • Barely mentioned.
        • Conference in June- merger of planning apps and model innovations.
    • Conference
      • Early June in Indianapolis.
      • Papers submitted, reviews currently in progress (Reviews due next week!)
      • Frequency? TRB: no current plan (e.g. yearly, every-other) – will depending on outcome of conference in the summer.
      • TRB is tightly overseeing conferences that are held “under their banner”- applications for conferences must be submitted a year+ in advance.
      • TRB staff do have capacity issues – they are stretched thin.
      • AEP15 discussion regarding the reasons for the split between modeling and applications
    • Parent Committee – Transportation Demand Forecasting (AEP50) –  Elizabeth Sall
      • Just completed triennial strategic plan
        • Available on website
        • Hopefully approving this afternoon
      • New website
      • Twitter
      • Will discuss TRB’s updated guidance to ensure committee is appropriately using committee and TRB staff resources.
    • Co-Align with AEP10? Co-Align with AEP15? (10 is policy, 15 is applications… history with being aligned with Statewide Planning committee that no longer exists)
    • Liaison Reports
      • Urban Data (Vince):
        • Several poster sessions and a podium panel session this afternoon
        • Urban Big Data SC is tomorrow morning.
        • TT and Reliability is happening now.
        • Census is virtual, Jan 26
      • SW and National Data (Maren):
        • Potential good fit for this subcommittee to align to?
        • AED10?

11:00 Research Focus Areas Status

  • Virtual Peer Exchange for Statewide Models to Develop Research Topics – Greg Giaimo
    • Columbus, Ohio
    • In person and virtual
    • 30 attendees in-person + 30 virtual
    • 11:02 Refer to Greg’s Presentation
      • Overview
      • Background
      • Peer Exchange Agenda
      • Next Steps
    • 11:15 Refer to Vince’s Presentation (Peer Exchange Survey Results)
      • 48% response rate
      • Staffing, Base year/updates, Software (that was requested by Greg Giaimo), Zonal/network detail, design (trip vs. hybrid vs. advanced; truck models), data sources (zonal, traffic, employment, commodity flow, se forecasts, big data [travel time, truck OD, pax OD]), validation statistics (plus comparison to 2010/NCHRP 836 T91), model uses.
  • 11:24 Open Discussion of potential new research topics from Peer Exchange
    • Giaimo: Image recognition research – national dataset of attributes
    • Avner:
      • There was nothing about network development or data sources e.g. state LRS, Open Streetmap, MPOs.
      • Application guidance or appropriate uses.
      • Special uses for modeling e.g. seasonality, tourist models.
    • Schiffer:
      • Tourist information is something we have a significant lack of. A deep dive into that would be valuable.
      • Update to the QRFM – original had sample trip rates, update did not have that; there is still a need for truck trip rate data.
    • Freedman:
      • Weekend travel also (add on to seasonality)
      • RSG currently working on NCRHP recreational travel to parks.
    • Question from gentleman sitting next to Tom Rossi[AR1] : Bike and Ped Considerations?
    • Outwater:
      • Plug for simplified short distance part of national model.
    • Bhamidipati, Chiranjivi (CDM Smith)[AR2] : AV Penetration and effects
    • Gliebe: different types of freight vehicles and electric vehicles / state charging network
  • Recognitions
    • Jeremy Raw – for heroics in assembling funding for SW peer exchange.
    • Rebekah Straub – for running the peer exchange… and making some damn good pie.
    • Greg Giaimo – executing and preparing the peer exchange.
  • Peer Exchange final report: Other Reports – Publications – Transportation Model Improvement Program (TMIP) – Planning – FHWA (dot.gov)

11:40 Upcoming Years Activities

11:42 Adjourn

Possible Follow-up Activities

  • Synthesis report topics – meet soon to develop SWM related topic – volunteers: Rob Schiffer and Rob Bostrom
  • New research subcommittee – meet to flesh out topics from Peer Exchange and explore new ones mentioned in today’s meeting.  Members: Michelle Bina, Mike Chaney, John Gliebe, Steve Tuttle, need one more.
  • Group to justify continued existence as subcommittee: Michelle Bina, Rob Bostrom, need another person.
  • Look into possible connection with AEP15, similar to what we had with Statewide Multimodal Planning as a co-parent committee.

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